A Brand New CROLEI: Do We Need a New Forecasting Index?

The aim of this paper is to determine whether the existing leading indicators system CROLEI (CROatian Leading Economic Indicators) and its derivative, the CROLEI forecasting index, predict overall Croatian economic activity reliably. The need to evaluate the CROLEI system and the index stems from the modification of the barometric method on which the system and the index are founded on in its application in Croatia. The evaluation of the forecasting power involved the construction of six alternative forecasting indices, which not only challenge the original CROLEI index, but also enable comparisons of forecasting power. The construction of the alternative forecasting indices is also based on the barometric method. The authors then proceed to adjust more complex measurements i.e. forecasting power evaluation matrix, in order to obtain credible forecasting power estimates. Forecasting power is also estimated using two regression models that allow for the forecasting of reference series and yield measurements of forecasting power. The results of both approaches indicate not only that the original CROLEI has by far the greatest forecasting power, but also that it is able to predict the turning points in the economic cycle with the highest probability.CROLEI (CROatian Leading Economic Indicators), forecasting indicator,barometric method, signaling method

Evaluation of Croatian innovation capability

In this paper we try to assess and evaluate Croatian innovation capability thorough the framework of the European Innovation Scoreboard (EIS), a system of innovation indicators. Economic theory perceives innovation as a source of national competitiveness and the EU set the ability to compete within the single market as the main economic criterion for EU accession. Through the use of EIS indicators we are able to compare and rank Croatia's achievements in innovation policy against EU and Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEEC). Croatia ranks well by European standards in comparison to other CEEC, in particular Bulgaria and Romania, but has not made a significant progress in its innovation potential and policy with respect to the EU

A composite leading indicator for a small transition economy: the case of Croatia

This paper provides an overview of application of a modified NBER “leading indicators approach” in Croatia since the mid 1990s. Shortness of time series, which has proven to be the biggest obstacle in applying the original NBER method, was overcome by a modification of a methodological step in the scoring procedure. The main idea behind the first part of the paper is to briefly explain the NBER methodology, with causes of modifications and interventions in the method when it started being applied in Croatia. Then follows an informative outline of the last revision of the CROLEI index from 2004 with the purpose to update the prognostic system and improve the index’s prognostic power. The last part of the paper analyses the movement of the CROLEI index and its prognostic strength with respect to the previous revisions and offers several conclusions

A composite leading indicator for a small transition economy: the case of Croatia

This paper provides an overview of application of a modified NBER “leading indicators approach” in Croatia since the mid 1990s. Shortness of time series, which has proven to be the biggest obstacle in applying the original NBER method, was overcome by a modification of a methodological step in the scoring procedure. The main idea behind the first part of the paper is to briefly explain the NBER methodology, with causes of modifications and interventions in the method when it started being applied in Croatia. Then follows an informative outline of the last revision of the CROLEI index from 2004 with the purpose to update the prognostic system and improve the index’s prognostic power. The last part of the paper analyses the movement of the CROLEI index and its prognostic strength with respect to the previous revisions and offers several conclusions

Patients perspectives on drug shortages in six European hospital settings : a cross sectional study

BACKGROUND: It is known that drug shortages represent a major challenge for all stakeholders involved in the process, but there is little evidence regarding insights into patients′ awareness and perspectives. This study aimed to investigate the patients-perceived drug shortages experience and their view on outcomes in different European hospital settings. Furthermore, we wanted to explore information preferences on drug shortages. METHODS: A retrospective, cross sectional, a mixed method study was conducted in six European hospital settings. One hospital (H) from each of this country agreed to participate: Bosnia and Herzegovina (H-BiH), Croatia (H-CR), Germany (H-GE), Greece (H-GR), Serbia (H-SE) and Poland (H-PO). Recruitment and data collection was conducted over 27 months from November 2017 until January 2020. Overall, we surveyed 607 patients which completed paper-based questionnaire. Questions related to: general information (demographic data), basic knowledge on drug shortages, drug shortages experienced during hospitalization and information preferences on drug shortage. Differences between hospital settings were analyzed using Chi-squared test or Fisher’s exact test. For more complex contingency tables, Monte Carlo simulations (N = 2000) were applied for Fisher’s test. Post-hoc hospital-wise analyses were performed using Fisher’s exact tests. False discovery rate was controlled using the Bonferroni method. Analyses were performed using R: a language and environment for statistical computing (v 3.6.3). RESULTS: 6 % of patients reported experiences with drug shortages while hospitalized which led to a deterioration of their health. The majority of affected patients were hospitalized at hematology and/or oncology wards in H-BiH, H-PO and H-GE. H-BiH had the highest number of affected patients (18.1 %, N = 19/105, p < 0.001) while the fewest patients were in H-SE (1 %, N = 1/100, p = 0.001). In addition, 82.5 %, (N = 501/607) of respondents wanted to be informed of alternative treatment options if there was a drug shortage without a generic substitute available. Majority of these patients (66.4 %, N = 386/501) prefer to be informed by a healthcare professional. CONCLUSIONS: Although drug shortages led to serious medical consequences, our findings show that most of the patients did not perceive shortages as a problem. One possible interpretation is that good hospital management practices by healthcare professionals helped to mitigate the perceived impact of shortages. Our study highlights the importance of a good communication especially between patients and healthcare professionals in whom our patients have the greatest trust. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-06721-9